Guesses for Pole, Front Row and Fast Nine

INDIANAPOLIS – Saturday is the first day of qualifying for the 98^th Indianapolis 500, but it’s not Pole Day.

Confused? You’re not alone.

The short explanation, using the NCAA Tournament as a comparison: Think of Saturday’s time trials as earning a bid into the tournament, then Sunday’s qualifying to determine the seeds.

In the latest attempt to increase interest in qualifying for the race – more cars would solve that issue – Saturday’s session will establish the 33 drivers for the race (maybe), but not the order. Bonus money and extra points (33 points for the top spot on Saturday, 32 for second and so forth) are additional incentive for the teams and drivers.

The top 30 cars from Saturday are locked in to the field. Bumping is theoretically possible, but at the moment only 33 car-and-driver combinations exist. 

The top nine qualifiers from Saturday advance to Sunday’s shootout, which will be televised on ABC starting at 1 p.m. EDT.

So the second day of qualifying becomes Pole Day.  Also on Sunday, the rest of the drivers in the provisional field will have to complete at least one more qualifying run to determine their starting spot.

All times from Saturday will be erased, and cars will run in reverse order based on their speeds from Saturday.  Similar to the bonus points on Saturday, the pole winner on Sunday will get nine points, second eight points and so forth.

With the procedures out of the way, here are my predictions:

Pole: Helio Castroneves. He’s been fast all month, er, week. Tied for second all-time with most poles (four) in Indianapolis 500 history, so he knows how to get the job done under pressure.  Besides, the Pennzoil car just looks right pacing the field at Indianapolis.

Second: Ed Carpenter. Carpenter is definitely the people’s choice, at least among the citizens of Indianapolis, who cheered mightily when their fellow resident and Butler grad scored an upset to take last year’s pole. He’s the only driver over 230 mph in practice this week.

Third: Juan Pablo Montoya. About the only thing Montoya didn’t do in his last and only Indy appearance in2000 was win the pole – he was edged out by Greg Ray, then the reigning IRL champion. He comes across as nonchalant, but maybe that’s because he makes it look so easy.

Fourth: Scott Dixon. Dixon has won the pole only once (2008), and the Ganassi team has missed the setup on qualifying the past couple of years. Still, he has seven starts in the top six in 11 previous starts.

Fifth: Marco Andretti. Hard to believe that this third-generation driver is seeking his ninth start. Best start was last year when he made the outside of the front row, matching his father’s best qualifying effort at Indianapolis.

Sixth: Will Power. Points leader has no poles at Indy, but since he joined Penske in 2009 he’s never started worse than ninth.

Seventh: Simon Pagenaud. Pagenaud won the inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but has been lackluster in two previous appearances on the oval (started 23^rd and 21^st). One of the better Honda runners this week.

Eighth: Tony Kanaan. Never started worse than sixth in his first eight starts, including the pole in 2005. Has had a quiet week, but capable of rising up this weekend.

Ninth: J.R. Hildebrand. My surprise pick for the Fast Nine this year, he joined Carpenter’s operation for the month and has been impressive.

Photo credit: Chris Jones/Indianapolis Motor Speedway